China’s Securing, Shaping, and Exploitation of Strategic Spaces: Gray Zone Response and Counter-Shi Strategies: A Small Wars Journal Pocket Book by Robert J. Bunker

Author:Robert J. Bunker [Bunker, Robert J.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781796077865
Publisher: Xlibris US
Published: 2019-12-22T16:00:00+00:00

Figure 3. Counter-CCP Gray Zone Use Strategic Response

Counter-Securing the Space

If the strategic space initiative exists within one or more Chinese sovereign controlled spaces, then no counter to the CCP regime securing the spaces is possible. Of the seven initiatives identified in this manuscript, only the ones related to the South China Sea, Taiwan, the Confucius Institutes, and direct foreign investment have or had the potential to be countered from being so secured. In the case of the Social Credit System initiative, while it cannot be countered from existing within China itself, it could potentially be countered from being exported to the CCP’s authoritarian allies such as the Maduro regime in Venezuela.331 Seven counter-securing space options potentially exist as follows:

Preempt the Need to Secure the Space: This option was identified by William G. Pierce et al.: “One way to counter potential aggression is to satisfy the needs of the aggressor’s decision-maker through alternative means.”332 While undertaking this action may stave off the potential for gray-zone activity, including that of armed conflict culpability, giving in to the aggressor can also be viewed as undertaking an appeasement policy.333 Further, if a concession is made somewhere else (an alternative need is filled; i.e. strategic objective gained) no future guarantee exists that the space will not be eventually seized and secured anyway. While this engagement-like approach may have some utility, it will likely not have much applicability where the primary CCP strategic imperatives are concerned. Still, in our relations with China, we have classic Western exemplars of diplomatic interactions we can draw upon—such as Machiavelli and, before that, Belisarius—and engage in a ‘dance of scorpions’ related to activities that are purely meant as engagement facades to better position ourselves strategically.

Deter Securing the Space: For strategic spaces we can possibly deter China from securing in the future, Kapil Bhatia advocates a policy of “unambiguous articulation of intent to challenge such approaches.”334 His writing on coercive gradualism is well developed and measured. He goes on to further state: “This includes defining clear red lines in gray zone scenarios where necessitated by national interests. The breach of a red line must be responded by escalatory, multidimensional, cost-imposing measures. It must be remembered that gradualist gray zone approaches thrive in the absence of red lines.”335 Certain physical residing spaces can thus be red lined in such a manner—be it Scarborough Shoal off the Philippines336 or Chinese military or even commercial basing in various regions of Latin America or say Greenland.337 Cyber based spaces—if they exist within the physical confines of a specific state—could possibly be protected by red lining but such spaces operate far more openly in non-authoritarian countries as opposed to authoritarian ones, which are increasingly attempting to create monitored digital chokepoints in and out of them. Narrative residing spaces, however, are not likely spaces that the CCP regime can easily be deterred from securing or creating as they represent social constructions unless, of course, unwanted social media narratives are criminalized such as has been done with online terrorist magazine (and extremist) content in the United Kingdom.

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